COVID-19 Conflict & Resilience Monitor – 17 March 2021

Just a few months ago, many South Sudanese were breathing a sigh of relief, believing that the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic had largely passed them by. Today, a virulent second wave is sweeping through the country causing huge harm to people’s health and wellbeing, damaging the already dire economy, and further interrupting the stagnating peace process. The number of cases is headed towards the 10,000 mark and there have been more than 100 deaths, although the true number of people affected by the virus is likely to be much higher given testing is largely limited to travellers and those with symptoms.

March 2021 marks a year after the executive branch of the Revitalized Government of National Unity (RTGoNU) was established partially in South Sudan at the national level. Since then the reconstituted Council of Ministers has been operationalized under the chairmanship of the President of the Republic, assisted by five Vice Presidents who represent the principal parties to the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS). These top political leaders were entrusted with running the machinery of the government through clusters of ministries, commissions, authorities, and independent specialized mechanisms. However, the peace process has been moving at a slow pace as key provisions of the R-ARCSS could not be implemented in time. The presence of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) has become questionable too for pushing the parties into creating a conducive environment for the unification of forces, institutional reforms, humanitarian responses, return of displaced citizens, economic reforms, constitutional making, conducting of a population census and holding general elections towards the end of the 36-month transitional period. The scourge of COVID-19 and associated restrictions have further complicated the peace process since 2020.

After seven years of deadly conflict and repeated attempts to reach peace deals in South Sudan, former rebel leader Dr. Riek Machar returned to Juba in February 2020 to be sworn in as Vice President as a part of the implementation of the September 2018 agreement. A combination of factors, including a lack of political will from the top leadership, the COVID-19 pandemic, flooding, and economic crises, has ensured very little progress during the implementation period from 22 February 2020, to 22 February 2021. During this time, the parties hesitatingly managed to form a government, but the parliament and national commissions are yet to be created. 

Since the start of 2021 South Sudan has seen a large increase in COVID-19 cases in the country.  Over the course of 2020 and into January 2021 South Sudan recorded 4,000 cases of COVID-19.  However, over the next month and a half, from the beginning of February through to March, this number has more than doubled to 8,870 confirmed cases. This rise in cases has unfortunately been accompanied by an increase in the number of COVID-19 related deaths bringing the total number to 102.  While the number of tests carried out in South Sudan has risen, it cannot on its own account for the surge in cases.  These facts indicate that a second wave, much worse than the first, is currently underway in South Sudan.